{"id":1003,"date":"2026-02-07T18:17:04","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T17:17:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=1003"},"modified":"2026-03-08T12:15:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T11:15:17","slug":"sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span style=\"color: #666666;\">This week&#8217;s deep dive is dedicated to the S&amp;P 500.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;ve been tracking this setup since W02 \u2014 and the framework still holds.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An analysis of the key technical indicators and historical patterns that guide our market reading.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->\r\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>S&amp;P 500 index<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The assumption is simple and strong at the same time.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>If we consider this bull market as a whole \u2014 started in 2020 from the Covid bottom \u2014 we see clearly three major waves (we&#8217;re in the third now) and one smaller one (2022\u201323).<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>What links all of them?<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The bull impulse ended when the S&amp;P 500 made a bearish break of the MA20W.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Will this time be different?<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>It could.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>But since we consider this as the same uptrend, our assumption is that history will repeat.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Same trend, same hands.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<div id=\"attachment_1011\" style=\"width: 1898px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1888\" data-lbwps-height=\"894\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-300x142.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1011\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1011\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1888\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly.png 1888w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-1536x727.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1888px) 100vw, 1888px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1011\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: S&amp;P500 weklly<\/p><\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 weekly chart shows us two main things:<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list -->\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>Prices have been sitting on top for basically 15 weeks, going nowhere \u2014 not up, not down.<\/li>\r\n<li>The MA20W keeps reacting to each touch.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph \/-->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Additionally:<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list -->\r\n<ul>\r\n<li>The weekly candle bodies have been very small for 10 weeks straight<\/li>\r\n<li>All moving averages are positively inclined and in bullish order from the fastest to the slowest.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>Volatility<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<div id=\"attachment_1021\" style=\"width: 1898px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1888\" data-lbwps-height=\"894\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator-300x142.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1021\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1021\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1888\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator.png 1888w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-volatility-indicator-1536x727.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1888px) 100vw, 1888px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1021\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: S&amp;P500 &#8211; propietary volatility indicator weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Our proprietary volatility indicator shows we&#8217;ve hit the limit \u2014 not a common spot.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>This is the floor \u2014 the lowest volatility level the US index can sustain.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>This week&#8217;s value is below 1%, and the MA5W calculated on the indicator has hit the same lows seen in June 2021 and May 2023.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Remember the assumption?<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Same multi-year bull market, same hands.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>So what happened in those prior cases?<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Both times there was a continuation of the bull market \u2014 which eventually ended when the S&amp;P 500 broke below the MA20W.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Here we are again.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>This is not a signal. But it&#8217;s something you should be monitoring.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph \/-->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Historical precedents show this is not a market top \u2014 however, prices typically retrace 100% of any advance from these volatility extremes.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The other big point we noticed were the candle bodies, very small in the last 10 weeks.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Let&#8217;s put &#8220;very small&#8221; in professional terms.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>Body size %<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<div id=\"attachment_1024\" style=\"width: 1898px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1888\" data-lbwps-height=\"894\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body-300x142.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1024\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1024\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1888\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body.png 1888w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-weekly-body-1536x727.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1888px) 100vw, 1888px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1024\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: S&amp;P500 &#8211; weekly body size in %<\/p><\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The candle body size expressed in percentage shows another interesting analogy: since 2018, every single case in which the MA5 calculated on bodies touched the current level (~0.5%), the market rose \u2014 even at the end of 2019, just before the Covid crash.<\/p>\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n<div id=\"attachment_1036\" style=\"width: 1367px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1357\" data-lbwps-height=\"602\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly-300x133.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1036\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1036\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1357\" height=\"602\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly.png 1357w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly-1024x454.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-infographich-weekly-768x341.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1357px) 100vw, 1357px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1036\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">infographic: S&amp;P500 &#8211; Bulls vs Bears weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>This week&#8217;s data shows a slight bull victory and almost no concern for potential downside. The fear indicator stands at 30%.<\/p>\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>Overextension on MA200W<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3.webp\" data-lbwps-width=\"1069\" data-lbwps-height=\"827\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3-300x232.webp\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1575\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3.webp\" alt=\"\" width=\"1069\" height=\"827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3.webp 1069w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3-300x232.webp 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3-1024x792.webp 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sp500-ma200w-fix3-768x594.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1069px) 100vw, 1069px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\r\n<p><!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph --><!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph --><\/p>\r\n<p>Obviously the overextension on the MA200W continues as well, which has now reached 173 weeks.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>In terms of duration: the current cycle still has room. The longest cycle lasted a decade (544 weeks), the pre-COVID one 441 weeks.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>In terms of magnitude: here the story is different. The current +38.15% is already the second highest level ever recorded, surpassed only by the 2000 peak (+60.58%). We also said it&#8217;s difficult to maintain these levels and even harder to extend them \u2014 indeed, we&#8217;re now at 32.93%.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>The key reading:<\/strong> this doesn&#8217;t mean the market will fall. Overextension can also be reabsorbed if prices stabilize for a long time \u2014 a crash isn&#8217;t necessary for the gap to close. But it does mean we probably won&#8217;t see spectacular upside breakouts.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>This is entirely consistent with what the other indicators are showing us.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph --><!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:separator --><hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/><!-- \/wp:separator -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The market is bull.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>There&#8217;s a good chance the S&amp;P 500 will rise further in the coming weeks.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>There&#8217;s also a good chance that every gain from here will be given back in the short-to-medium term.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>That&#8217;s what this bull market has taught us so far.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Our point is always the same: eyes on the MA20W.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>If you&#8217;re bull, you probably want to take some cover.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>If you&#8217;re bear\u2026 wait for your pitch.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>The MA20W.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:group {\"backgroundColor\":\"#e0e0e0\",\"layout\":{\"type\":\"constrained\"}} -->\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-group has-background\" style=\"background-color: #e0e0e0;\"><!-- wp:paragraph {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\r\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>This is the last S&amp;P 500 article accessible to everyone.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\r\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Soon only members will access this content.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph {\"align\":\"center\"} -->\r\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/pricing\/?plan=free\"><strong>Subscribe free.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:group -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s deep dive is dedicated to the S&amp;P 500. We&#8217;ve been tracking this setup since W02 \u2014 and the framework still holds. An analysis of the key technical indicators and historical patterns that guide our market reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[833],"tags":[72,938,674,16,75,30,948,936,428,10,623,524,411,617,934,71],"class_list":["post-1003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-deep-dive","tag-bull-market","tag-candle-bodies","tag-ma20w-en","tag-market-analysis","tag-moving-averages","tag-sp-500","tag-sp500","tag-stock-indices","tag-support-and-resistance","tag-technical-analysis","tag-technical-indicators","tag-trading-en","tag-trading-strategy","tag-volatility","tag-wall-street","tag-weekly-chart"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market&#039;s historical pattern teaches us.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market&#039;s historical pattern teaches us.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"RRTS Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1003\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"751\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"D.M.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"D.M.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"D.M.\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/623b816df5b6e44f415fba974408c852\"},\"headline\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\"},\"wordCount\":735,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"bull market\",\"candle bodies\",\"MA20W\",\"market analysis\",\"moving averages\",\"S&amp;P 500\",\"S&amp;P500\",\"stock indices\",\"support and resistance\",\"technical analysis\",\"technical indicators\",\"trading\",\"trading strategy\",\"volatility\",\"Wall Street\",\"weekly chart\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Deep Dive\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\",\"name\":\"S&P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00\",\"description\":\"S&P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market's historical pattern teaches us.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png\",\"width\":1003,\"height\":751,\"caption\":\"table: S&P500 Overextensions Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"S&#038;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/\",\"name\":\"RRTS Blog\",\"description\":\"Financial markets analysis and trading insights\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Round-Robin Trading Strategies\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RRTS512x512.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RRTS512x512.png\",\"width\":512,\"height\":512,\"caption\":\"Round-Robin Trading Strategies\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/623b816df5b6e44f415fba974408c852\",\"name\":\"D.M.\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"D.M.\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/author\/admin\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"S&P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog","description":"S&P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market's historical pattern teaches us.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"S&P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog","og_description":"S&P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market's historical pattern teaches us.","og_url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/","og_site_name":"RRTS Blog","article_published_time":"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1003,"height":751,"url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png","type":"image\/png"}],"author":"D.M.","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"D.M.","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/"},"author":{"name":"D.M.","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/623b816df5b6e44f415fba974408c852"},"headline":"S&#038;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern","datePublished":"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/"},"wordCount":735,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png","keywords":["bull market","candle bodies","MA20W","market analysis","moving averages","S&amp;P 500","S&amp;P500","stock indices","support and resistance","technical analysis","technical indicators","trading","trading strategy","volatility","Wall Street","weekly chart"],"articleSection":["Deep Dive"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/","url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/","name":"S&P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern - RRTS Blog","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png","datePublished":"2026-02-07T17:17:04+00:00","dateModified":"2026-03-08T11:15:17+00:00","description":"S&P 500 technical analysis: volatility at historic lows and sideways price action for 15 weeks. MA20W remains the key level to watch. What the bull market's historical pattern teaches us.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/SP500-overextension-MA200W-1.png","width":1003,"height":751,"caption":"table: S&P500 Overextensions Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-deep-dive\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"S&#038;P 500: Volatility Floor and the Bull Market Pattern"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/","name":"RRTS Blog","description":"Financial markets analysis and trading insights","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#organization","name":"Round-Robin Trading Strategies","url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RRTS512x512.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/RRTS512x512.png","width":512,"height":512,"caption":"Round-Robin Trading Strategies"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/623b816df5b6e44f415fba974408c852","name":"D.M.","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/a92e0e703a9cc52bb1532809ca91f16533063ff66fca9820613725c2f9f8fa65?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"D.M."},"sameAs":["https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog"],"url":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/author\/admin\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1003"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1576,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1003\/revisions\/1576"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}