{"id":1180,"date":"2026-02-11T13:25:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T12:25:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=1180"},"modified":"2026-02-26T18:09:16","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T17:09:16","slug":"technical-analysis-gap-up-gap-down-pattern-spotted-week-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/technical-analysis-gap-up-gap-down-pattern-spotted-week-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Pattern Spotted: The Gaps"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><small>Pattern Spotted is our format where we analyze patterns and configurations as they appear in the markets.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><small>This week we discuss <strong>Gaps<\/strong>, with a focus on weekly ones and daily ones only when truly significant.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><!--more--><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gaps have always exerted a special, almost mythological fascination on many traders.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, after more than thirty years of market experience, I have learned that the most widespread narrative about gaps is often more dangerous than their actual presence on the chart.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_1169\" style=\"width: 805px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"795\" data-lbwps-height=\"491\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps-300x185.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-1169\" class=\"size-full wp-image-1169\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"795\" height=\"491\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps.png 795w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Gaps-768x474.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 795px) 100vw, 795px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-1169\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Gaps<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Before diving in, two necessary premises.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>I prefer weekly gaps. Daily ones are too frequent, often noisy, and lead to overestimating events of little structural relevance. A weekly gap instead implies that something important happened while markets were closed for several days: the market reacted \u2014 or overreacted \u2014 to a concrete event.<\/li>\r\n<li>I do not use volume to classify gaps. In complex systems volume can play a role, but in simple analysis I have never seen a clear statistical edge from volume, not even in major trends. The narrative \u201chigh-volume crash = disaster\u201d vs \u201cbargain hunting at discount prices\u201d is always correct\u2026 ex post.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Common Gap<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/commonGap.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1886\" data-lbwps-height=\"869\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/commonGap-300x138.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/commonGap.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1886\" height=\"869\" \/><\/a>\r\n<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">chart: S&amp;P500 index daily &#8211; Common Gaps<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the most \u201cquiet\u201d gap and \u2014 paradoxically \u2014 the one that can cause the most damage if the trader treats it as an automatic opportunity.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From the weekly S&amp;P500 chart it is clear that the index is in a broad sideways range at highs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Three common gaps appear: one gap up and two gap downs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The first gap up is wide, but it does not break any previous relative high.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The candle has a tiny body compared to recent averages. It slightly over-extends the MA5 but without clear signals from either fast or slow moving averages. No relevant momentum indicator for the timeframe gives a bullish confirmation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Status quo unchanged \u2192 common gap.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Beginner\u2019s voice: \u201cSo short, it\u2019s bound to close almost for sure.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here is the \u201calmost\u201d that can blow up an account.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To trade a common gap you always need a concrete price action signal (which in this case only arrives when the gap is already almost closed).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What can we use a common gap for?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>not adding to long positions<\/li>\r\n<li>protecting existing long positions<\/li>\r\n<li>reducing net long exposure<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These are not trivial pieces of information.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second gap down is even more trivial: gap from the high, virtually non-existent body, fully contained within the previous days\u2019 range. Nothing. Yet it took five days to fill it. The idea \u201cgap down = buy\u201d is therefore at best reckless.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third (the second gap down) looks \u201cgigantic\u201d in context.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Beginner\u2019s voice: \u201cThis can\u2019t be a common gap! Look at that gap and look at the body.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, if the next candle had not closed above the high of the gap candle, it would have been harder to classify it right away.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it did not go below December 2025 lows and did not break the MA100.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Common gap confirmed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I would have been ready to reclassify it only if subsequent candles had shown significant bodies breaking lows and the MA.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To trade gaps in the direction of their fill we need a price signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The axiom \u201cgap down\/gap up = buy\/sell\u201d is mathematically destructive when applied systematically.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Breakaway Gap<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/breakawayGap.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1886\" data-lbwps-height=\"897\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/breakawayGap-300x143.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/breakawayGap.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1886\" height=\"897\" \/><\/a>\r\n<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">chart: S&amp;P index daily &#8211; Breakaway Gap<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is the gap that claims the most victims, not only financially but also psychologically.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Punting against its survival is an exercise that leads to deep and prolonged losses.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the chart above we have the S&amp;P 500 daily in May 2025 with a gap up that breaks the March relative high and \u2014 above all \u2014 the MA100 (the one that triggered the February-April drawdown).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A few days later it seems to fail, retests MA100 and MA200, bounces and resumes higher.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A little nugget for those with good pattern recognition skills: the bearish move broke MA100 and MA200, pulled back to MA200 and plunged; the bullish move broke MA100 and MA200 and pulled back again to MA100 and MA200. Same hands.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nearly a year later: +1000 points.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The axiom \u201cgap = it fills\u201d proves unwise and devastating from every perspective.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Breakaway gaps can fill, sure.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Very often they do when the capital has already evaporated.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Measuring Gap (Runaway Gap)<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/runaway-gap.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1886\" data-lbwps-height=\"897\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/runaway-gap-300x143.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/runaway-gap.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1886\" height=\"897\" \/><\/a>\r\n<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">chart: DAX weekly &#8211; Runaway Gap<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The measuring (or runaway) gap is the one that has always created the most interpretive doubts for me.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is why I codified it algorithmically: I don\u2019t want to ask myself every time whether it is measuring or exhaustion.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s summarize with one requirement: if it is continuation it must show strength, therefore the candle body must be significant (as in the DAX weekly 2018).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Beginner\u2019s voice: \u201cWell, in this case it was obvious it was a measuring gap because there is a bear trend and it breaks the previous low.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">True, but not so obvious because there was little distance below the MA200W (key level since 2016 for this market).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The runaway gap performed perfectly, extending the decline for another three months.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the record: it was filled only in April 2019 (six months later).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Exhaustion Gap<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In my experience, unless accompanied by very strong contextual signals, the exhaustion gap does not mark the end of the trend, but a short-term pause.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It can easily be confused with the measuring gap, therefore I also use quantitative criteria for this type of gap.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The general guideline is the morphology requirement of the candle body: small and preferably with close below open.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Easy to translate:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>there is a strong trend<\/li>\r\n<li>there is FOMO<\/li>\r\n<li>a gap up forms at the high<\/li>\r\n<li>but at the end of the period price is near or even below the open<br \/><br \/><\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FOMO evaporated. All urgency to enter suddenly disappeared.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Never underestimate their danger: even these gaps, if not managed with risk-respecting money management, can hurt badly in the short term.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\r\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full is-resized\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/exahaustion-gap.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1886\" data-lbwps-height=\"897\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/exahaustion-gap-300x143.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/exahaustion-gap.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1886\" height=\"897\" \/><\/a>\r\n<figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">chart: S&amp;P500 index weekly &#8211; Exhaustion Gap<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Clear example: S&amp;P 500 weekly, Halloween 2025.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gap up at all-time high, breaks previous high \u2192 cannot be common by definition.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But null body, no real extension.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">FOMO evaporated.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the rare cases where attacking immediately (i.e. the next candle) against the gap makes sense, with rigorous money management.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the specific case there was a favorable risk-reward ratio (expected win \/ expected loss) just under 2.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The money management I use when trading in the direction of an exhaustion gap fill is the following:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Stop loss at the high of the gap candle<\/li>\r\n<li>If the gap fills, move stop loss to breakeven<\/li>\r\n<li>If it reaches a level or relevant moving average and fails to break it, exit on trailing stop<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I never choke potential profit: the gap fill is to be considered the minimum target.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This type of gap could also signal a trend reversal, so I always try to ride any possible wave.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br \/>In the specific case: gap filled, good downside move but recovered at week\u2019s end.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The following week breakeven stop was at risk.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The third week finally tested, with bull victory, the MA20W (true driver of the bullish waves in this bull market since 2020, as shown in our posts on the S&amp;P500 index) and exit on trailing stop.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gaps carry a dangerous magic, a precarious balance between myth and reality.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The temptation to apply simple rules (\u201cgap down buy\u201d, \u201cgap always fills\u201d) is very strong. But it is demonstrable with a simple trading system that these simplifications destroy capital over the medium term.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gaps are not automatic signals. They are information.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Used with discipline, they help avoid adding at the wrong moment, protect capital, reduce exposure when needed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sometimes they even offer high-quality trades, but only if you don\u2019t believe the legend.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Verify it yourself on your charts and your markets.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Applying textbook rules vs a more selective price-action-based approach.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The equity line will tell you the truth.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pattern Spotted is our format where we analyze patterns and configurations as they appear in the markets. This week we discuss Gaps, with a focus on weekly ones and daily ones only when truly significant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1215,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[420],"tags":[1006,1012,1010,1022,1024,1056,1058,1054,74,1014,413,424,948,10,905],"class_list":["post-1180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pattern-spotted-en","tag-breakaway-gap","tag-common-gap","tag-exhaustion-gap","tag-gap","tag-gap-down","tag-gap-fill","tag-gap-myths","tag-gap-trading","tag-gap-up","tag-measuring-gap","tag-money-management-en","tag-price-action","tag-sp500","tag-technical-analysis","tag-trading-system"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pattern Spotted: The Gaps - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Debunking gap myths: common, breakaway, measuring &amp; exhaustion gaps explained with real S&amp;P500 and DAX examples. 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