{"id":1225,"date":"2026-02-14T00:01:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T23:01:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=1225"},"modified":"2026-02-20T23:31:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T22:31:29","slug":"technical-analysis-weekly-chart-ftse-mib-the-hunt-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/technical-analysis-weekly-chart-ftse-mib-the-hunt-6\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hunt: FTSE MIB week 6"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Weekly tracking of the Italian benchmark index. Why do we do this? <\/span><\/em> Check our strategy page<\/strong><\/a>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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My proprietary DBBT indicator identifies misalignments between the current price and the expected technical level on major indices.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Every week, we put the FTSE MIB in the crosshairs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The hunt is on.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

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In our previous analysis<\/a> we had outlined the closure of the Long Call leg of our options strategy in case of an exclusively positive weekly open.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Monday’s open was positive, it extended, and we were able to execute our money management plan.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A common gap also played in our favour, making the rally even less credible and a bullish breakup even less likely.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The final confirmation came with the failure to surpass the previous week’s high at 47,093.98.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From there the market pulled back, closing the week at 45,430.62 (-0.97%).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A week that, after Monday’s explosive start, will have probably fooled many.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

infographic: FTSE MIB weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears:<\/strong> the week closes firmly in favour of the bears.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Fear is high, a sentiment likely influenced by the heavy moves in precious metals and by the increasing probability that the S&P 500 delivers an extremely bearish signal with a close below its own MA20W.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

All of this with values contained within the previous week’s range.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We therefore have a weekly inside candle<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is the key pattern for next week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let’s look at it in detail.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The FTSE MIB weekly chart has not changed its structure: close below the previous week with no meaningful break on the fast moving averages.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Weekly Inside Candle: On Top in a Bull Market<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB weekly – Inside Candle on Top<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our algo identifies inside on top candles in a bull market (starting from the short term) on the weekly timeframe.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From 2000 to today we have had 9 cases.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is the 10th.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The chart, even from a great distance, already shows quite clearly that an inside on top is toppish.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let’s decode it with a table showing where the market went after 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 weeks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Pay particular attention to the 5-week mark, as it takes us to the March triple witching expiry.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

infographic: FTSE MIB weekly – Inside Candle on Top Performance<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We are talking about rare and extreme events.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our assumption is that the event tends to repeat itself while maintaining its underlying indication.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

9 cases in 25 years.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Anyone who thinks you need 100 observations to act is applying the wrong statistics to events that are rare by nature.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

When an extreme pattern presents itself, the question is not whether the sample is sufficient \u2014 it’s whether you have the courage to act on an obvious asymmetry before it becomes obvious to everyone else.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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The Detail: Week 1<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

After one week, 9 out of 9<\/strong> cases closed negative.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This does not mean it will always be so.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

It means that this formation on the FTSE MIB has so far shown this.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In 20 years we expect it will no longer be 100%, but that the odds will still favour a negative weekly close over a positive one.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

There is a logic to it: the market made an important top, pulled back, profit-taking created an intraweek inside bar, buyers did not step in, and it drifts lower by inertia until it finds support.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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The Trimmed Mean<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The other indication comes from the trimmed mean, removing the best and worst values.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

An inside weekly leading to a crash in the first week has a very low probability.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The median tells us to expect something around -1.39%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The worst decline observed was -2.15%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

After 3 weeks there is a high risk that this initial decline gets at least partially reabsorbed (pullback).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

After 5 weeks a new bearish acceleration.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We have a very clear scenario:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A)<\/strong> Negative in week 1.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

B)<\/strong> Risk of reabsorption from week 2 to week 3 (pullback).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

C)<\/strong> Pullback confirmation and further decline.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Beginner’s voice: “So perfect, we already know how it’s going to play out. Go short immediately, cover at the end of the week, then increase at the pullback.”<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In an ideal world, yes.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The important message comes at 5 weeks: 6 Bear wins vs 3 Bull.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Maximum Bull outcome +3.37%; combined with the minimum of +0.89%, this also gives us an idea for a stop loss just above +1% (we are always referring to weekly closes, not intraweek).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Average -2.14%, again excluding extremes.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n


But the current bull market, which began in 2020, has 3 cases (this is the fourth), two of which did not quite play out as we would have expected.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n


We need something more to take a short position into triple witching.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n


Let’s see if other indicators give us something solid enough at least to ride the bear strength (9 out of 9) of the first week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Volatility Indicator<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB – proprietary volatility indicator weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our proprietary volatility indicator continues to show compression.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Its deadline for an explosion was precisely next week (5 weeks since entering compression).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

After last week’s clogging signals we need it to show us something more extreme before we can trust it again.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The moving averages calculated on the indicator are dropping to interesting levels but nothing that can call us to action.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Body Counter<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB – Body Counter<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our body counter indicator shows a simple but powerful piece of data: since October 17th there have been no 2 consecutive weekly candles with a close below the open.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

That is a considerable delay.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

It does not tell us this will be the time it happens, but it slightly reinforces the expectation of a negative outcome that the inside weekly pattern is suggesting.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Close Counter<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB – Close Counter<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The close counter essentially shows the same thing, which will perhaps surprise many permabears.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The FTSE MIB has not closed negative for two consecutive weeks since October 2025 (where negative means at least -1 index point).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Strategy Management<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The initial idea of buying volatility (Long Call + Long Put) did not work out.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

But the money management approach proposed last week paid off.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Without the closure of the Long Call leg, within a few days we would have faced a total loss on both legs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Today we are still in play to realise a profit, something that with both legs still open would have had virtually zero chance.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We are not in profit yet though.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We need at least a -2% intraweek move to see an acceptable gain.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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What did not work?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We don’t know yet whether it didn’t work.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The volatility indicator flagged a highly probable move within 3-5 weeks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Next week is the technical expiry week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As already stated, by method I do not live in hope that something will happen in the last week \u2014 something that did not happen in the previous 4 \u2014 while risking a 100% loss on both Calls and Puts.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From a theoretical standpoint we will know by next Friday’s open whether it didn’t work.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From a management standpoint we no longer hold a long straddle strategy but a simple Long Put.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We started non-directional, we ended up directional.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Not ideal, but when things don’t go your way the target always becomes limiting the damage.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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What worked?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The management via the Swing MM Trading System, whose signal we showed last week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Closing the Long Call leg on Monday’s rally allowed us to take a minimal loss on the Calls, avoid the wipeout of both legs, and stay in the game.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Why is it important to salvage trades like these rather than let them go to zero?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Because the market continuously offers new opportunities.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

With part of the proceeds from selling the Long Call leg we opened light bearish positions split 60% on week 1 and 40% on week 5.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Bear Scenario (winning)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If week 1 pays more than 2% intraweek (-2% from Friday the 13th’s close), we will fully hedge through to Friday the 20th, expiry day.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Without further very clear bearish signals, on Friday the 20th we will liquidate everything.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If the signals are not clear we “trust” the inside week on top pattern.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bull Scenario (losing)<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

On Friday we will take the loss on week 1 and hedge week 5 fairly aggressively while waiting for new signals.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

What needs to happen to close in profit?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

To give an honest answer we split the total Long Put position in two, since they are effectively 2 different trades born from different analyses and different needs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n


Those from the trade opened 5 weeks ago (buying volatility with Long Call + Long Put): to profit we need to see the FTSE MIB at 44,500 intraweek.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n


The others: with declines exceeding -1% on the week we would be more than satisfied.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A rare and powerful pattern: inside on top with 9 out of 9 negative closes at one week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A strategy born non-directional that money management turned directional, saving it from being wiped out.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Light bearish positions opened with a clear plan for both scenarios.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Proprietary indicators that do not yet confirm but do not contradict.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Friday February 20th is the technical expiry.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The market has one week to show us whether the pattern holds or whether the current bull market is the exception.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n

Soon only members will be able to read this content<\/strong>. Sign up for free.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\r\n<\/div><\/div>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly tracking of the Italian benchmark index. Why do we do this? Check our strategy page. My proprietary DBBT indicator identifies misalignments between the current price and the expected technical level on major indices. Every week, we put the FTSE MIB in the crosshairs. The hunt is on.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1233,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[72,1079,1083,1071,33,1067,1069,1075,1073,413,75,506,30,1077,10,905,1081,617,71],"class_list":["post-1225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-hunt-ftse-mib","tag-bull-market","tag-compression","tag-extreme-patterns","tag-february-technical-expiry","tag-ftsemib","tag-inside-candle","tag-inside-on-top","tag-long-call","tag-long-put","tag-money-management-en","tag-moving-averages","tag-options","tag-sp-500","tag-straddle","tag-technical-analysis","tag-trading-system","tag-triple-witching","tag-volatility","tag-weekly-chart"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Hunt: FTSE MIB week 6 - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inside candle on top on the FTSE MIB: 9 out of 9 cases closed negative after one week. 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