{"id":1430,"date":"2026-02-26T19:18:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T18:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=1430"},"modified":"2026-02-26T19:18:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T18:18:29","slug":"rising-wedge-pattern-spotted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/rising-wedge-pattern-spotted\/","title":{"rendered":"Pattern Spotted: Rising Wedge"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Pattern Spotted is our format where we analyze patterns and configurations as they appear in the markets.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n

This week we discuss the Rising Wedge<\/strong> – one of the most abused and overused patterns in technical analysis history.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n

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How little this pattern is worth – when applied by the book – has already been demonstrated by modern literature on the subject and by this week’s Pattern Decoded<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As always, let’s look at some real cases in detail.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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EUR\/USD<\/h3>\r\n\r\n
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chart: EUR\/USD daily – Rising Wedge<\/p><\/div>\r\n

From March 2025 to July 2025, the daily chart showed rising lows and rising highs – but the highs were climbing at a shallower angle.<\/p>\r\n

The lower trendline (green) touches three points.<\/p>\r\n

The upper trendline (red) touches two.<\/p>\r\n

The setup requirements are met.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A large candle breaks the green trendline and triggers the short entry.<\/p>\r\n

Perfect – on paper.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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On social media, whenever a setup like this appears, the crowd screams for everyone to run for the exits – spreading the certainty that a swift, devastating bear market is about to unfold.<\/p>\r\n

We know that’s not true. It’s been demonstrated.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This chart proves it once more.<\/p>\r\n

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Prices accelerated further to the downside only for the session after the break, then began climbing back – all the way to the September stop loss.<\/p>\r\n

An unlucky stop, yes – hit by a narrow margin.<\/p>\r\n

But it would have been hit anyway, even if months later, because by February 2026 prices had pushed well beyond. Instead the target zone was never even approached.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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What went wrong?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From my perspective, this was a low-probability trade from the start.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

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If we look at how the bull market originated, two elements stand out in March 2025:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n