{"id":175,"date":"2026-01-10T13:46:42","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T12:46:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=175"},"modified":"2026-02-20T23:25:56","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T22:25:56","slug":"ftse-mib-weekly-analysis-the-hunt-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/ftse-mib-weekly-analysis-the-hunt-1\/","title":{"rendered":"FSTE MIB: THE HUNT week 1"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Weekly tracking of Italy’s benchmark index. Why we do this? Check our strategy page<\/strong><\/a>.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

My proprietary DBBT indicator identifies misalignments between current price and expected technical level across major indices. Each week, we put the FTSE MIB in our crosshairs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The hunt is on.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a><\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The FTSE MIB weekly chart<\/strong> speaks for itself: bull market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Technical doubts: zero.
The only relevant correction came in March-April 2025 \u2014 erased with a V-shape recovery. Every other dip was quickly absorbed into sideways consolidation at highs before the trend resumed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The key read from this chart:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

All moving averages are rising and perfectly aligned by the textbook. Price sits above MA5W (white) > MA10W (green) > MA20W (orange) > MA50W (red) > MA100W (purple) > MA200W (amaranth).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Zero doubt \u2014 this is a bull chart. If your time frame is short-term, trying to guess when the trend reverses is largely futile.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

The Objections<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Permabear voice:<\/strong> “There’s clearly a doji this week.”<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Yes. But look at the chart: throughout this bull market, a doji has never anticipated a trend inversion. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen starting Monday. It means we have no historical basis to rely on it.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Permabear voice:<\/strong> “This doji comes with a gap up.”<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Correct. And this combination \u2014 gap-up doji at new highs \u2014 hasn’t occurred in over two years of bull market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

When was the last instance? December 2020.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: December 2020 weekly doji + gap up<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

The doji closed at 22.232,90. The subsequent week printed a top at 23.003,56 \u2014 a +3,5% move \u2014 before reversing. The gap filled within three weeks. By the fourth week, price bottomed at 21.311,51, a -4,1% decline from the doji close.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The pattern showed itself to be toppish.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

How rare is this setup? Before the two post-COVID occurrences, it appeared zero times in data going back to 1998. A “zero-chance” event in 20+ years showed up twice in under five years.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The take:<\/strong> This is not statistics \u2014 it’s closer to cabalistic observation. But the precedent exists: the same outcome could repeat. A strategist’s response could be: reduce long exposure for 3-4 weeks. If price breaks below this week’s low (45.400), selling OTM calls enters the picture. There is no evidence of a major inversion \u2014 only a potential stall.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

A Note on Method<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The gap-up doji tells us the spin could slow down.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Is that enough? No.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

So we look for supporting evidence?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is one of the most severe analytical mistakes.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Data must be analyzed for what stands out \u2014 not for what supports our partial observations, our hunches, or worse, our biases.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

What Stands Out<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: FTSE MIB weekly moving averages bullish divergences<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

Is there anything excessive in duration or magnitude? Not yet. MA50W and MA100W are approaching levels that slowed the market in November 2025, but those moving averages speak to a different timeframe than the December 2020 analog.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No confirmation here. We move on.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

Weekly Range %<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
FTSE MIB weekly range % – the MA5 minimum<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

Weekly Range % measures the week’s high relative to its low, expressed as a percentage. Simple.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What matters now: the 5-week moving average (MA5W, white) sits below 2%. The historical floor we’re watching is approximately 1,5% \u2014 the level touched in December 2023, May 2019, and October 2017.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Holiday weeks naturally compress range. But when MA5W approaches this floor during a bull market at new highs, history has something to say.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Three prior instances. Let’s examine what followed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

October 2017<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: FTSE MIB OCT 2017 Weekly Range % minimum<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

Was the trend bullish? Yes. Was price at new highs? Yes. What followed: Sideways for several weeks. Strategical read: Compatible with reducing long exposure \/ covering with short OTM calls.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

May 2019<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: FTSE MIB MAY 2019 Weekly Range % minimum<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

Was the trend bullish? Yes. Was price at new highs? Yes \u2014 two weeks prior, near the top. What followed: Bearish, approx one-month correction. Strategical read: Compatible with reducing long exposure \/ covering with short OTM calls.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

December 2023<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: FTSE MIB DEC 2023 Weekly Range % minimum<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

Was the trend bullish? Yes. Was price at new highs? Yes. What followed: Sideways for five weeks. Strategical read: Compatible with reducing long exposure \/ covering with short OTM calls.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

Convergence<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Three historical instances of Weekly Range % MA5W hitting lows during a bull market at new highs. All three preceded either sideways consolidation or correction.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This aligns with what the gap-up doji is signalling: the FTSE MIB probably won’t advance much further \u2014 if at all \u2014 in the near term.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Probably.<\/em> That word is always the keyword for decent money management.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

PowerBull vs PowerBear<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n
\"FTSE<\/a>\r\n
Chart: FTSE MIB PowerBull vs PowerBear Indicator<\/figcaption>\r\n<\/figure>\r\n<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n

This proprietary indicator shows bulls losing momentum after peaking \u2014 a pattern that has consistently preceded price stalls. The implication: bullish pressure is fading. If buyers can still push higher, they won’t go far.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is numbers talking, not prophecy. Nothing is written in stone.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

When This Approach Tells Us We’re Wrong<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No statistical framework is complete without defining failure conditions.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If you reduced long exposure:<\/strong> New highs persisting for 2-3 weeks signal the thesis was incorrect. The expected deceleration didn’t materialise.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If you covered with short OTM calls:<\/strong> The strike moving ATM is a warning. The strike moving ITM means you’re wrong \u2014 close the position.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The time horizon:<\/strong> We expect 3-4 weeks of stalled momentum. If after this window the market remains above the gap, that’s a significant warning. Unless your short call position is still deep OTM, reassess the entire thesis.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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 <\/p>\r\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bull market with signs of deceleration that could persist for the next 3-4 weeks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What does the framework suggest? Reducing long exposure fits the statistical picture. If price breaks below this week’s low (45.400), covering with short OTM calls becomes a consideration. The data points to a probable pause \u2014 not yet that major trend inversion we’re hunting with the DBBT.<\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Unfamiliar with terms like gap or doji? We cover technical concepts every Monday in Pattern Decoded<\/strong> (theory) and every Wednesday in Pattern Spotted<\/strong> (applied examples). Options strategies are part of our advanced Trading Academy program \u2014 launching soon.<\/em><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly tracking of Italy’s benchmark index. Why we do this? Check our strategy page. My proprietary DBBT indicator identifies misalignments between current price and expected technical level across major indices. Each week, we put the FTSE MIB in our crosshairs. The hunt is on.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[72,73,33,74,70,77,75,76,10,71],"class_list":["post-175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-hunt-ftse-mib","tag-bull-market","tag-doji","tag-ftsemib","tag-gap-up","tag-italian-stocks","tag-market-outlook","tag-moving-averages","tag-options-strategy","tag-technical-analysis","tag-weekly-chart"],"yoast_head":"\nFSTE MIB: THE HUNT week 1 - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FTSE MIB weekly technical analysis: The Hunt Week 1. 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