{"id":2059,"date":"2026-04-19T22:05:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T21:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2059"},"modified":"2026-04-19T22:05:10","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T21:05:10","slug":"technical-analysis-nikkei225-chart-of-the-week-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/technical-analysis-nikkei225-chart-of-the-week-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Charts of the Week: Nikkei225"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The S&P 500 printed a new all-time high with a clean break confirmed by the weekly close as well. An exceptional bullish candle that under normal circumstances would have been the natural choice for Chart of the Week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Yet the choice fell on the Nikkei 225.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Nikkei also touched a new all-time high intraweek at 59,688.10 this week. But unlike the S&P 500, the weekly close at 58,475.90 did not confirm the record, remaining below the all-time closing high of 58,850.27 from the week of February 27.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The reason the Nikkei deserves the main focus is another one.<\/p>\r\n

The overextension on the MA200W has returned above 50%. This week could mark the beginning of that final phase we outlined in our Chart of the Week Week 9<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n

<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: NIKKEI 225 – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Bulls dominate with 5,509.76 points against 1,400.88 from the bears.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The ratio is approximately 4:1 in favor of the bulls. The bears are nonetheless present. The fact that the Fear Indicator at 35% is not in the complacency zone suggests a reading with potential loss of momentum.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: NIKKEI 225 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

All moving averages are positively sloped. The MA5W is still below the MA10W but one more positive week, even slightly, will likely be enough to complete the cross.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The intraweek high at 59,688.10 marks a new all-time high. The weekly close at 58,475.90 however remains below the closing record of 58,850.27 from the week of February 27, which coincided with our system’s short entry.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The failure of the close to confirm the record is the first element of caution.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: NIKKEI225 – Volatility Indicator<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The volatility indicator remains above average levels at 17.66%.<\/p>\r\n

Nothing exceptional and perfectly in line with the cyclical pattern the Japanese index has been showing over the last 5 years, including in terms of frequency.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Range Weekly %<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: NIKKEI225 – Range Weekly %<\/p><\/div>\r\n

Down from the previous week, from 7.25% to 6.14%.<\/p>\r\n

Above the slow averages but nothing extraordinary here either.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: NIKKEI225 – BCP3<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

According to our swing indicator, the Nikkei has completed its bullish swing, the most powerful since the post-COVID bounce.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This indicator alone is not a trend-ending signal but could anticipate a physiological correction.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Overextension on the MA200W<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: NIKKEI225 – weekly overextensions on MA200W<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is the most important section of the article.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In our Chart of the Week Week 9<\/a> we outlined the long-term scenario in five points.<\/p>\r\n

Point E predicted that, once the excesses were exhausted and the overextension had fallen back below 50%, the index would resume its rise with a final leg capable of producing new highs.<\/p>\r\n

Point F indicated that the return of the overextension above 50% would become the first signal to build long-term bearish positions.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

This is exactly what is happening.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

The overextension on the MA200W has returned to 51.87%. The minimum of 37.69% reached during the correction represents a clear pass below 50%, not noise of a few percentage points.<\/p>\r\n

This allows classifying the correction as the second wave of the excess cycle.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

The model therefore enters what we had presented as the final phase: the phase that, historically, has always preceded a long-term bear market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Why is this particularly important?<\/p>\r\n

Because the Nikkei could drag along all those markets showing toppish configurations.<\/p>\r\n

An unequivocal signal on the Nikkei would allow seizing all those bearish opportunities that could emerge on other global indices.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusions<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The price signal is not there yet, but the excess is already present.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The overextension on the MA200W has returned above 50%, completing the sequence described in Chart of the Week Week 9. The BCP3 has recorded the most powerful bullish swing since post-COVID. The weekly close did not confirm the new all-time high intraweek.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Given the volatility and the presence of the excess, the system has already allocated 50% of the position at Friday’s close.<\/p>\r\n

The remaining 50% will be allocated once a price signal materializes or a new record excess is reached.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The overextension on the MA200W is the metric to monitor. Historically, every time this excess configuration has formed, it has been reabsorbed through a bear market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts. The S&P 500 printed a new all-time high with a clean break confirmed by the weekly close as well. An exceptional bullish candle that under normal circumstances would have been the natural choice for Chart of the Week. Yet the choice fell on the Nikkei 225. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2075,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[361],"tags":[35,1282],"class_list":["post-2059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-nikkei","tag-nikkei225-en"],"yoast_head":"\nCharts of the Week: Nikkei225 - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Nikkei 225: new all-time high intraweek but close below the record. The MA200W overextension returns above 50%. 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