{"id":2101,"date":"2026-04-26T17:41:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T16:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2101"},"modified":"2026-04-26T17:42:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T16:42:31","slug":"sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-of-the-week-17-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-of-the-week-17-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the Week: S&P500 index"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Last week in Charts Flash<\/a> we called the S&P 500 the obvious pick for Chart of the Week, deferring to the Nikkei 225<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Another week of higher highs and higher lows, a new all-time closing high. But in a context of compressed moves and a market that is not pricing risk.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our volatility indicator tells a different story. We are at levels that in a bull market context have been seen only once in the last 26 years. It was March 2000.<\/p>\r\n

<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears<\/h2>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

infographic: S&P500 weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n

About 244 total points in play. Two weeks ago the range exceeded 600. The Fear Indicator at 5% captures total complacency carrying over from the previous week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A mild continuation, enough for a new all-time closing high but, this week, without the conviction of a market that is pushing.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

Weekly close at 7,165.08.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The MA5W and the MA10W are still below the MA20W. The fast moving averages have not recovered the bearish cross generated by the March correction. Price is running alone.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The overextension on the MA5W has reached 3.44%. The 2025 peak was 2.90%, reabsorbed with a sideways and bearish move on the highs.<\/p>\r\n

To find higher values you need to go back to the post-COVID bounce or to 2009.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

These are not standard situations, they are not low frequency, they are rare.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – Volatility Indicator<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

19.80%. A top value for the last decade, excluding the COVID crash.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Every peak in the 18-20% area over the past ten years was recorded exclusively in bear markets and often produced a reversal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

To find a comparable peak in a bull market you need to go back to the week of March 24, 2000.<\/p>\r\n

The market registered a top, crashed in the following three weeks from 1,552 to 1,339, bounced and eventually started the Dotcom bear market.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The 2000 precedent<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – Bulls High Volatility March 2000<\/p><\/div>\r\n

In January 2000 the market set an all-time high. A correction followed, then a violent V-shaped recovery and a large candle that broke the previous top decisively. Then the crash, a long distribution phase and the start of the Dotcom bear market in early 2001.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – Bulls High Volatility 2026<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Today: all-time high in January 2026, correction ending in late March, V-shaped move, new record.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

There are other cases where a bull volatility peak on the highs led to continuation. But in different contexts: the break of the previous high came gradually, barely exceeded for weeks before moving higher.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

What sets this peak apart, like the one in 2000, is that it arrived with a V-shaped move and a violent break of the previous top with a single candle.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Overextension on MA200W<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

Table: S&P 500 Overextension Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Week 184 of the current cycle. The overextension moves back to 34.21%, above 30%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In the February deep dive<\/a> we wrote that +38.15% was the second highest value ever recorded in 40 years of data, surpassed only by the 2000 peak (+60.58%). We wrote that in 40 years every overextension of this magnitude has been historically reabsorbed and that the ultimate target is the MA200W.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In the Chart of the Week Week 11<\/a> the overextension had dropped to 28.22%, below 30% for the first time. The compression was proceeding cycle after cycle toward its historical reabsorption.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In a matter of weeks the market reversed the compression. The V-shaped recovery pushed the overextension back above 30% and toward the 2025 peak.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – BCP3<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The S&P 500 swing has not peaked yet but will almost certainly do so next week.<\/p>\r\n

A further element in favour of a rally that has completed or that will struggle to confirm its momentum.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Our system enters Short. It does so on historical excesses, not on a price signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

From a pure technical analysis standpoint, a reversal pattern with a clear price signal is needed.
Should one materialise, the highest probability trade is selling Short out-of-the-money CALL options at 1-2 months.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Bullish arguments are not lacking.<\/p>\r\n

The clean break of the previous all-time high and of a sideways range on the highs lasting from September 2025 to February 2026 is gold for trend followers and permabulls.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

A quantitative approach however signals that something the markets are hiding.<\/p>\r\n

Multiple indices, with different systems applied, without generating price signals have triggered short signals.<\/p>\r\n

The first was the Nikkei 225<\/a>. Others will follow in this week’s Charts Flash.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This typically occurs before major market moves, often in the direction of the systems.<\/p>\r\n

But when it doesn’t, it goes violently the other way.<\/p>\r\n

These are not normal situations. If wrong, it is wrong by a lot. There will be no room for noise.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts. Last week in Charts Flash we called the S&P 500 the obvious pick for Chart of the Week, deferring to the Nikkei 225. Another week of higher highs and higher lows, a new all-time closing high. But in a context of compressed moves and a market that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2111,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[361],"tags":[948],"class_list":["post-2101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-sp500"],"yoast_head":"\nChart of the Week: S&P500 index - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S&P 500: new all-time high but volatility at March 2000 levels. MA200W overextension back above 30%. 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