{"id":2161,"date":"2026-05-02T22:28:51","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T21:28:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2161"},"modified":"2026-05-02T22:32:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T21:32:34","slug":"sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-of-the-week-18-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-technical-analysis-weekly-chart-of-the-week-18-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the week: S&P500 index"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

A weekly appointment with the most watched charts in the world.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Last week’s Chart of the Week<\/a> was dedicated entirely to the S&P 500, with a bull high volatility reading not seen since March 2000 and a system entering short on historical excesses.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This week the market responded: a new ATH on both the high and the close.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Meanwhile the Fed held rates unchanged, confirming the wait-and-see stance already seen in the prior meeting.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No surprises on the macro front, no capitulation on the technical front.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The market keeps climbing.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: S&P500 weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A slight continuation, consistent with the prior two weeks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

242 bull points against 87 bear, Fear Indicator at 25%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A market advancing without pushing, with a weekly range that does not tell the story of a convinced breakout.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Weekly close at 7,230.12.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Fourth consecutive week of higher highs and higher lows.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

While it is true that the last two weeks have seen only a modest advance, the S&P 500 has printed a new ATH on both the high and the close: a fact that cannot be ignored.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The MA10W remains below the MA20W: the moving averages have not yet recovered from the bearish cross generated by the March correction.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The MA5W has developed an inclination that is difficult to sustain, dragged higher by the V-shaped recovery of recent weeks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Overextension Above MA200W<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

Table: S&P 500 Overextension Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Week 185 of the current cycle. The overextension above the MA200W edges slightly higher to 34.94%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The implications remain unchanged from the previous analysis<\/a>: the V-shaped recovery has reversed the compression that was progressing cycle after cycle toward historical mean reversion, pushing the overextension back above 30% and toward the 2025 peak of +38.15%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – Volatility Indicator<\/p><\/div>\r\n

The peak flagged in the previous analysis<\/a> is confirmed: the indicator drops to 15.08%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A reading in contraction, but still elevated.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The weekly range stands at 2.32%, below all fast and slow moving averages: the market is not generating breadth, it is advancing in compression.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 – BCP3<\/p><\/div>\r\n

As expected, it reaches the peak of this bull swing: 12.73%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The second highest reading of the past five years, exceeded only by the 13.86% registered in May last year.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

One more extreme added to an already crowded table.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The 2000 Parallel<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The parallel with the 2000 bulls high volatility break remains valid.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No correction has materialized, but this cannot yet be called a true continuation: two weeks of compressed advance following a violent break of the all-time high do not constitute sufficient strength to invalidate the toppish setup.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In 2000 the market took several weeks before revealing its real direction.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We are still in that window.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The system is carrying a loss of approximately 65 points.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Nothing compromised: this is the cost of an early entry on historical excesses, without waiting for a price signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The same pattern played out on Silver and Brent Crude Oil: early entry under pressure, then the price signal arrived with enough force to make the original entry optimal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Whether this trade will follow the same path is not something we can know.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The market is at a crossroads: what comes next will leave no room for interpretation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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