{"id":2298,"date":"2026-05-17T23:37:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-17T22:37:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2298"},"modified":"2026-05-17T23:58:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-17T22:58:13","slug":"technical-analysis-sp500-weekly-chart-of-the-week-20-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/technical-analysis-sp500-weekly-chart-of-the-week-20-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the week: S&P500 index"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

The S&P 500 returns as Chart of the Week for the third time in five weeks. In the COTW two weeks ago<\/a> the market was at a crossroads with the Short system down roughly 65 points and the MA200W overextension at 34.94%. In last week’s Charts Flash<\/a> the crossroads had resolved to the upside with the fifth consecutive week of higher highs and higher lows.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This week the S&P 500 is the only index to have posted a new all-time high on the weekly high (7,517.12) and to have also set a new closing high at 7,408.50, up 9.56 points. Let’s see what the indicators have to say.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: FTSE MIB weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Bulls win the week with a 1.30:1 ratio (201.77 versus 155.39). Compared to previous weeks the victory is narrow, a very slight loss of strength entirely normal after the most recent rally.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Fear Indicator rises to 60%. After weeks in the comfort zone, it crosses the attention zone for the first time without however entering the alarm zone.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h3>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: SP500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Sixth consecutive week with higher highs and higher lows, seventh with close above open, fifth overextended above the MA5W.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Despite the system’s Short position still being intact, the American index has given no sign of weakening the bull structure. The record for consecutive positive weeks is 9, achieved on 2 occasions in the last 26 years (4 times 8 consecutive). The record for consecutive weeks with close above open is 9, achieved 4 times in the last 26 years.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This week the MA10W completed a bullish cross above the MA20W. All moving averages are now correctly aligned and positively inclined.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: Volatility Indicator – SP500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

At 6.69%, third consecutive week in decline. It now sits on long-term average values (MA50W).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Range Weekly%<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB – range % weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Range also declining, at 2.43%. The simultaneous decline in volatility and range, combined with the other elements present on the S&P 500, continues to favor a scenario of momentum exhaustion, compatible with both a corrective pause and a broader distributive structure.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: BCP3- SP500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Hooks credibly at 9.12% this week, confirming high probabilities of correction at least in the short term.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Overextension MA200W<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

Table: S&P 500 Overextension Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

We are at week 187 and the overextension on the MA200W has reached a new high at +38.39%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The previous high, in October 2025, had led to three weeks of decline and a rounding on the highs that ultimately culminated in the February-March 2026 selloff. There is no guarantee this will repeat, but these are limit values for this bull movement that started in October 2022 and worth considering.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In the last 25 years only in 2021 did the overextension exceed 40% (post Covid vaccine). Barring exogenous shocks, the expectation is that these values will produce similar effects, having occurred within the same bull movement.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusions<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The technical structure remains clearly bullish and, until proven otherwise, the trend is right.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

At the same time, the market finds itself once again in a statistically extreme zone: elevated overextension, volatility in compression, range in contraction and excess indicators beginning to rotate.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

There is no price reversal signal yet, but the risk\/reward for new long exposure continues to deteriorate week after week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The system’s Short position therefore remains unchanged. Not to anticipate an absolute top, but because under these conditions the market has historically tended to prepare a corrective directional move, rather than an orderly trend continuation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As always, it will be the market that decides whether these extremes will be absorbed sideways or through a true corrective phase.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The S&P 500 returns as Chart of the Week for the third time in five weeks. In the COTW two weeks ago the market was at a crossroads with the Short system down roughly 65 points and the MA200W overextension at 34.94%. In last week’s Charts Flash the crossroads had resolved to the upside with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[361],"tags":[948],"class_list":["post-2298","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-sp500"],"yoast_head":"\nChart of the week: S&P500 index - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S&P 500 new all-time high at 7,517.12 and new closing high at 7,408.50. MA200W overextension at 38.39%. 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