{"id":2330,"date":"2026-05-24T22:15:49","date_gmt":"2026-05-24T21:15:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2330"},"modified":"2026-05-24T22:15:49","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T21:15:49","slug":"technical-analysis-sp500-weekly-chart-of-the-week-21-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/technical-analysis-sp500-weekly-chart-of-the-week-21-26\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the week: S&P500 index"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

New week, new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 at 7,473.47.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

However, the record wasn’t accompanied by a fresh intraweek high above the 7,517.12 printed last week<\/a>: weekly high capped at 7,506.32.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

An unusual record, then, that breaks the 6-week streak of higher highs and higher lows.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let’s look at the details.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls vs Bears<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: S&P500 index weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

Bulls win the week by a wide margin, a roughly two-to-one ratio despite lower highs and lower lows. Buyers show both upside strength and holding capacity on pullbacks.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Fear Indicator sits in the lower part of the comfort zone, a reading typical of a risk-on phase with no tension.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h3>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The weekly candle is a Capped ATH Close, an anomalous configuration where the new closing record isn’t accompanied by a new weekly high. With neutral indicators this formation resolves into continuation more than 75% of the time.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This time, however, it comes with short and medium-term oscillators in overbought territory, a setup similar to January 2014. In this context the historical outcome is mixed, with a slight predominance of the excess signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Both highs and lows are lower. The streak of consecutive weeks with higher lows breaks at 7, and the streak of weeks with both higher highs and higher lows breaks at 6.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two bullish counts remain intact. Consecutive weeks with a positive body (close above open) rise to 8, a streak that has reached 9 only 4 times in the last 25 years. Consecutive weeks with higher closes are also at 8, with a record of 9 seen twice in the same period.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The index is above all moving averages, correctly aligned from slowest to fastest. The overextension on the MA5W has dropped to zero.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: Volatility Indicator – S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

The Volatility Indicator is stable at 6.58%, confirming the contraction recorded the previous week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

It holds above the MA50W around 6%, while short-term averages remain above 11%, a footprint of the recent expansive phase already retraced to long-term values.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Range Weekly%<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: range % weekly – S&P500 index<\/p><\/div>\r\n

The Range Weekly% sits at 2.35%, for the second consecutive week below all moving averages. The MA5W has dropped back below the MA50W.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The recent bullish expansive phase of volatility came with wide weekly ranges, a technical expression of the move’s directionality. The current compression, with ranges below all averages, configures a toppish setup.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The combined reading of Volatility Indicator and Range Weekly% signals an exhaustion of the directional momentum of the ongoing rally.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h3>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: BCP3- S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

The BCP3 drops to 5.21%. The rotation that started on the indicator hasn’t yet found correspondence in the index price action.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The possibility of the bearish swing materializing is still open. As with the other indices, however, time is starting to risk invalidating the corrective scenario: the indicator could exhaust itself with a sideways at the top.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The alternative continuation scenario also remains open, statistically less probable in this context but implicit in the Capped ATH Close. A confirmation would stop out the Short trade, underwater since its opening.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Overextension MA200W<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

Table: S&P 500 Overextension Cycles Above MA200W (1990-2026)<\/p><\/div>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

We’re at week 188. The overextension on the MA200W holds at +37.84%, in continuity with the extreme values of the previous week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The lower weekly low didn’t produce compression on the indicator: the new closing record kept the distance from the MA200W at the recent peak’s levels.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusion<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The picture of excesses gains a new element. The Capped ATH Close adds to overbought oscillators, overextension on the MA200W at record levels, simultaneous compression of volatility and range, BCP3 in rotation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

On the opposite side, buyers keep absorbing every dip: the weekly candle closes at a new record despite lower highs and lower lows, the streaks of positive closes and positive bodies are both at 8 and one step away from the all-time record of 9.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The system’s Short position stays open in drawdown territory, at the same levels as the previous week. Every new candle is at once the one potentially decisive for the correction and one step closer to the trade’s stop loss.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Capped ATH Close that opens the week is the synthesis of the moment: new all-time highs, but with internal structure starting to give way. Price will decide which of the two paths prevails.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New week, new all-time closing high for the S&P 500 at 7,473.47. However, the record wasn’t accompanied by a fresh intraweek high above the 7,517.12 printed last week: weekly high capped at 7,506.32. An unusual record, then, that breaks the 6-week streak of higher highs and higher lows. Let’s look at the details.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[361],"tags":[30,948],"class_list":["post-2330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-sp-500","tag-sp500"],"yoast_head":"\nChart of the week: S&P500 index - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Weekly technical analysis S&P 500: new closing record without a fresh weekly high. 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