{"id":2422,"date":"2026-06-07T14:19:05","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T13:19:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=2422"},"modified":"2026-06-07T14:45:41","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T13:45:41","slug":"ftse-mib-weekly-technical-analysis-hunt-22","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/ftse-mib-weekly-technical-analysis-hunt-22\/","title":{"rendered":"The Hunt: FTSE MIB week 21"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Monitoraggio settimanale dell’indice di riferimento italiano.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Perch\u00e9 lo facciamo?<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Consulta la nostra pagina strategia<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

Il mio indicatore proprietario DBBT identifica disallineamenti tra prezzo corrente e livello tecnico atteso sui principali indici.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Ogni settimana, il FTSE MIB \u00e8 nel nostro mirino.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La caccia \u00e8 aperta.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Seconda settimana consecutiva di incertezza sui massimi. Il FTSE MIB chiude a 49.893,05, con massimo e minimo ancora crescenti rispetto alla settimana precedente, ma con una close negativa sia sulla chiusura precedente di 49.896,82 sia sull’apertura settimanale di 50.251,21.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il quadro tecnico non si risolve. Le medie mobili restano allineate e inclinate positivamente, ma la capacit\u00e0 del mercato di produrre rialzo reale continua a ridursi. Lo scenario tracciato la settimana scorsa<\/a>, con la posizione short attiva e la convergenza tecnica orientata verso un ritracciamento, non ha trovato conferma nel prezzo, ma nemmeno smentita nei numeri.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il sistema resta in posizione short. Vediamo nel dettaglio cosa ci raccontano gli indicatori.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Bulls vs Bears<\/h3>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: FTSE MIB weekly – Bulls vs Bears<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il Fear Indicator si posiziona al 65%, in zona arancione. Bull Strength e Bull Resilience sommano 944,55 punti, Bear Strength e Bear Resilience 1.154,47. Il rapporto bulls\/bears scende a 0,82: per la prima volta da settimane i bears esprimono una forza aggregata superiore ai bulls.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00c8 un cambio di registro rispetto alle settimane precedenti. Non segnala inversione immediata, ma documenta che il peso tecnico si \u00e8 spostato: il mercato difende i massimi con una struttura interna sempre meno solida.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

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Il Quadro Generale<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n

Massimo a 50.319,55 e minimo a 49.868,02: entrambi crescenti rispetto alla settimana precedente. La chiusura a 49.893,05 \u00e8 per\u00f2 inferiore sia all’apertura settimanale di 50.251,21 sia alla close della settimana scorsa di 49.896,82.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il risultato \u00e8 una candela settimanale tecnicamente ribassista: close sotto open, close sotto close precedente, nonostante massimo e minimo in salita. \u00c8 la seconda settimana consecutiva che produce questa combinazione. Sul piano della price action, \u00e8 un segnale di distribuzione, non di continuazione.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le medie mobili rimangono tutte allineate e inclinate positivamente. Il trend di fondo non \u00e8 in discussione. \u00c8 la capacit\u00e0 del mercato di progredire all’interno di quel trend che continua a indebolirsi settimana dopo settimana.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il sistema resta in posizione short.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Volatility Indicator<\/h3>\r\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

L’indicatore di volatilit\u00e0 scende al 2,86%: \u00e8 il minimo del 2026. L’ultimo valore comparabile era il 3,06% registrato a febbraio-marzo, prima del movimento direzionale che ne \u00e8 seguito.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La compressione in s\u00e9 non dice la direzione. Dice che il mercato ha smesso di muoversi e che questa condizione, storicamente, non si protrae a lungo. La casistica degli ultimi anni indica che da livelli analoghi la volatilit\u00e0 \u00e8 esplosa entro tre o quattro settimane. Il conto alla rovescia \u00e8 ragionevolmente avviato.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Range Weekly %<\/h3>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il range settimanale risale leggermente al 2,11%, interrompendo la serie di contrazioni consecutive. Il recupero \u00e8 marginale e non cambia il quadro di fondo.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Le ultime cinque settimane raccontano la stessa storia: ritocchi di massimo che aggiornano i livelli sul piano numerico ma che non producono escursioni degne di nota. Nuovi massimi reali, ma senza la forza che normalmente accompagna un mercato in espansione. L’allineamento tra compressione della volatilit\u00e0 e restringimento del range \u00e8 statisticamente pi\u00f9 associato a flessioni che a continuazioni rialziste.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

BCP3<\/h3>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: FTSE MIB – BCP3 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Lo swing ribassista riprende e annulla l’uncino rialzista della settimana scorsa. Il movimento era abbastanza prevedibile nella dinamica dell’indicatore, ma non si \u00e8 ancora tradotto nel ritracciamento atteso sul prezzo.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Lo spazio per completare una correzione di discrete proporzioni rimane ampio. Il problema, come nelle settimane precedenti, \u00e8 il fattore temporale: ogni settimana che passa senza movimento ribassista erode il margine disponibile prima che la struttura dell’indicatore cambi.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusione<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il sistema resta in posizione short. La chiusura settimanale \u00e8 inferiore sia all’apertura che alla close precedente: per la seconda settimana consecutiva il prezzo non produce un break strutturale del range e nessun indicatore tecnico genera la condizione minima per un segnale di uscita.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

La volatilit\u00e0 compressa al minimo del 2026 ha avviato un conto alla rovescia che statisticamente non dovrebbe superare le quattro settimane. La direzione resta ignota, ma il quadro complessivo \u00e8 pi\u00f9 coerente con uno scenario correttivo che con una ripresa del rialzo: due candele consecutive con close sotto open, bears che superano i bulls nel rapporto di forza, range che non si espande.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Il mercato fa nuovi massimi di periodo ma la struttura interna si deteriora. Massimo e minimo crescenti sono il segnale di superficie; close sotto apertura, ratio bulls\/bears sotto 1, volatilit\u00e0 ai minimi sono il segnale sotto la superficie. Quando queste due letture divergono per pi\u00f9 settimane consecutive, storicamente \u00e8 il secondo segnale, quello nascosto, a prevalere.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Monitoraggio settimanale dell’indice di riferimento italiano. Perch\u00e9 lo facciamo? Consulta la nostra pagina strategia.   Il mio indicatore proprietario DBBT identifica disallineamenti tra prezzo corrente e livello tecnico atteso sui principali indici. Ogni settimana, il FTSE MIB \u00e8 nel nostro mirino. La caccia \u00e8 aperta. Seconda settimana consecutiva di incertezza sui massimi. Il FTSE MIB […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2423,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[69],"tags":[33],"class_list":["post-2422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-hunt-ftse-mib","tag-ftsemib"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Hunt: FTSE MIB week 21 - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"FTSE MIB closes below open for the second consecutive week. 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