{"id":517,"date":"2026-01-21T10:00:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T09:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=517"},"modified":"2026-01-20T18:35:32","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T17:35:32","slug":"case-study-eurusd-shooting-star-inverted-hammer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/case-study-eurusd-shooting-star-inverted-hammer\/","title":{"rendered":"Pattern Spotted: Long Upper Shadow"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Pattern Spotted is our Wednesday format that showcases real-world applications of Monday’s Pattern Decoded. This week: Long Upper Shadow.<\/strong><\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

EUR\/USD: The King of Shooting Stars<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let’s start immediately with the king of Shooting Stars: EUR\/USD. From 2016, five out of six occurrences have been successful (one was not confirmed). Impressive.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Let’s focus on the period 2022-2026.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: EURUSD weekly – Shooting Stars<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n

Case 1: December 2022 – Setup Not Confirmed<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Analyzing carefully, we see that the Shooting Star appeared the same day EUR\/USD broke above the MA50W (typically not a bearish confirmation).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The next week it was an inside bar.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

As we know from Pattern Decoded, the pattern requires either a price or a technical confirmation. None was present<\/strong>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h3>\r\n

Case 2: February 2023 – Setup Confirmed (Bearish Success)<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A beautiful setup: not only the Shooting Star, but also a MA100W rejection AND an outside week candle (high extended the prior week’s high, low extended the prior week’s low) – we use white candles to show all outsides, hollow or filled.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In this case, you don’t need the break of the low in the following week, since the reversal is supported by other evidence (at least, this is my approach).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Of course, it would have been equally correct – by the manuals – to wait for the next week’s confirmation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h3>\r\n

Case 3: December 2023 – Setup Confirmed (Bearish Success)<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Also in this case, the Shooting Star was created by a moving average rejection (MA50W) – that’s a great validation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Enough to place a trade without waiting for the next week’s close confirmation.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h3>\r\n

Case 4: September 2025 – Setup Confirmed (Bearish Success)<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

In this case, the moving averages didn’t help: the fastest MA5W to MA20W were too flat on prices. Therefore, a price confirmation was required.<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The confirmation arrived with the close of the following week, which closed below the low.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

How We Define a Shooting Star<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Note about how we calculate the Shooting Star: it must be a 20-week market high, it must have an upper shadow AT LEAST 2x bigger than the body, AND a lower shadow less than 10% of the whole weekly range.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Zero arbitrariness. That’s why we didn’t consider the following cases:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

A) April 2023:<\/strong> There’s no Shooting Star – the upper shadow to body ratio isn’t respected.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Devil’s Advocate: “Yeah, but it paid out!”<\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Yes, it did. But it’s not a Shooting Star, and in my opinion, the move was driven by the Long-Legged Doji of the following week, not the wannabe Shooting Star.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

B) April 4, 2025:<\/strong> A sweet, deep long shadow, but again, the 2:1 shadow-to-body ratio isn’t met. I guess in this case there’s no devil’s advocate since it would have been a loss.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

C) April 25, 2025:<\/strong> That’s really nice – a super long upper shadow and a very tiny body. BUT the lower shadow is not only present but bigger than the body. This is not a Shooting Star, even though the market reversed.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

What Should You Have Learned From This?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

First, how to spot a Shooting Star on a chart.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Second, to be consistent. If you required once that the Shooting Star is a 20-week market top, you can’t accept next time a beautiful Shooting Star that’s only a 10-week high. If you married the 3:1 ratio, you can’t switch to 2:1 – you know, breaking a marriage can cost a lot. And if you waited for the next week’s close confirmation, keep doing it even if in hindsight you found out you could have anticipated.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bonus:<\/strong> It works on all markets and on all timeframes (with different orders of magnitude, of course).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

Does It Always Work?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No, as with all statistical tools.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: Brent Oil weekly – Failed Shooting Star<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n

In this example on Oil (Brent), a terrible, painful failure.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

March 2024: a crystal-clear Shooting Star.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Everything was saying it was a perfect reversal signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The long-term trend was bearish, short-term bullish, and the Shooting Star hit the MA100W. The high was lower than the prior high (September 2022)… the perfect storm.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Instead, two weeks later: a violent breakout to the upside… that turned out to be a bullish trap.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

This is one of the worst losses a trader can face from a psychological point of view: the right idea, stop loss gets hit, and then you watch prices almost immediately go in what was the right direction. But again, consistency… the next time, a good trader will have the same approach.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

\u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

The Inverted Hammer: A Legend?<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

It’s very rare to see a long upper shadow at the lows of a bear market. Why?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Here’s an example: if our setup requires a 20-candle low (any timeframe), and bulls come in strong, it’s likely that bears will start taking profits, so the candle often tends to close at the highs.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conversely, when prices have already been rising for 20 candles (any timeframe), bulls are more exposed both to profit-taking and to bears looking for a resistance point.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The first scenario – asking for a reaction in a candle that started badly for those already in profit – is much less probable.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Inverted Hammer is not only less likely to appear, but even less likely to provide a buy signal. Often (on major assets: indices, commodities, currencies), contrary to theory, the trend continues – maybe not for long, but the decline tends to persist.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

For this reason, several technical analysts use workarounds (often ex-post) to explain how it actually works well. The two most common:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

1. It doesn’t need to be exactly at a low… just close to one.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

2. The price signal doesn’t need to be the very next candle (some accept 3-candle setups, some 5… some even more).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

I don’t favor tricks designed to make the numbers work.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The first criterion is, in my view, aberrant.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The second depends on how deep the subsequent move went and for how long.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

If the answer is “not much” for both, using the Inverted Hammer’s high as a bullish entry point makes sense – after all, it’s a resistance level.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 daily – Inverted Hammer<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

I’ll close with an example on S&P 500 daily (November 4, 2017) of what I consider a true Inverted Hammer:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    \r\n
  • a 20-candle low (in this example, 20 daily)<\/li>\r\n
  • the shadow-to-body ratio of at least 2:1 respected<\/li>\r\n
  • accompanied by at least one technical signal (MA200 holding)<\/li>\r\n
  • followed by price confirmation immediately at the close of the next candle<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    \u00a0<\/h2>\r\n

    Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    This time, very personal conclusions – but statistically unassailable on daily and weekly charts:<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Shooting Stars are excellent, yet can fail:<\/strong> They are perfectly identifiable and rarely fail to confirm the setup.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

    Inverted Hammers are not as reliable:<\/strong> They are even rarer than Shooting Stars. With a rigid algorithmic approach, they very often fail to confirm the setup (they often don’t break above the Long Upper Shadow’s high). Provocatively, I would say they actually qualify as perfect continuation patterns… albeit often for only a limited number of candles.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Pattern Spotted is our Wednesday format that showcases real-world applications of Monday’s Pattern Decoded. This week: Long Upper Shadow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":523,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[420],"tags":[594,588,438,590,563,565,559,75,592,596,598,30,561,10,600],"class_list":["post-517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pattern-spotted-en","tag-brent-oil","tag-candlestick-pattern","tag-eurusd","tag-forex-trading","tag-inverted-hammer","tag-japanese-candlesticks","tag-long-upper-shadow","tag-moving-averages","tag-pattern-confirmation","tag-pattern-spotted","tag-reversal-signals","tag-sp-500","tag-shooting-star","tag-technical-analysis","tag-weekly-trading"],"yoast_head":"\nPattern Spotted: Long Upper Shadow - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"EUR\/USD case study: how to identify and confirm Shooting Star and Inverted Hammer patterns. 5 winning trades out of 6 since 2016. 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