{"id":697,"date":"2026-01-25T16:49:08","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T15:49:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=697"},"modified":"2026-03-08T12:11:03","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T11:11:03","slug":"sp500-weekly-analysis-2026-w04-chart-of-the-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/sp500-weekly-analysis-2026-w04-chart-of-the-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart of the Week: S&P 500 Index"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The S&P 500 came under pressure at the beginning of the week \u2014 the weekly low marked a -2.2% drop from the prior week’s close. But the bulls came back, and by Friday’s close at 6,915.61, the weekly loss was just -0.42%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Nothing happened? Let’s see what the market told us.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Big Picture<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

All the moving averages still show positive inclination and remain correctly aligned one below the other, from the fastest (MA5W) to the slowest (MA200W). Prices sit a few points below the MA5W \u2014 just noise, not a short-term price signal.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

The Framework: MA20W and MA200W<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

chart: S&P500 closes with MA20W<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two weeks ago, I proposed a simple theory: only the MA20W counts as reversal support. You can read the full analysis here<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n

 <\/p>\r\n\r\n

This week confirmed it. The MA20W sits at 6,754. The market set its low at 6,789.05 \u2014 exactly 35 points above (+0.52%) \u2014 then ripped back up almost +2%.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

We saw identical behavior in November: touch on MA20W, immediate bounce.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

The rule remains simple:<\/strong> above MA20W, it’s bull. Below MA20W, it’s bear \u2014 unless it flattens and gets broken without movement, but we’re not there yet.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bullish Overextension on MA200W<\/strong><\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

Chart: S&P 500 overextensions above MA200W<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Why monitor this? Because it’s statistically relevant, as shown in our previous analysis.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two weeks ago, the key reading was: “it does suggest we probably won’t see dramatic upside rips from here<\/em>.”<\/p>\r\n

\r\n\r\n<\/p>\r\n

\"\"<\/a>

Table: S&P 500 Overextension Cycles Above MA200W<\/p><\/div>\r\n

The update: S&P 500 is now 171 weeks into the current overextension cycle above MA200W. This week the extension reduced slightly to +33.74% \u2014 still historically extreme.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n

\r\n\r\n\r\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\r\n
\"\"<\/a>

infographic: S&P500 Bulls vs Bears Weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Close to close, bears won the week (-0.42%). But open to close, bulls won \u2014 the weekly candle structure favors them despite the percentage loss.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Fear spiked Tuesday morning, then evaporated. Back to the green zone \u2014 almost zero worry.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Bulls remain in control. The market is respecting MA20W. Bears need to break it to change anything.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

No price reversal signal yet. MA20W holds bullish. Overextension on MA200W remains toppish. These are the only data points that matter for this framework.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n

Two weeks ago: watch MA20W. This week: MA20W worked. The trend hasn’t changed.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Weekly appointment with the world’s most watched charts. The S&P 500 came under pressure at the beginning of the week \u2014 the weekly low marked a -2.2% drop from the prior week’s close. But the bulls came back, and by Friday’s close at 6,915.61, the weekly loss was just -0.42%. Nothing happened? Let’s see what […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":702,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[361],"tags":[672,674,660,662,666,658,656,668,664,948,670],"class_list":["post-697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chart-of-the-week","tag-ma200w-en","tag-ma20w-en","tag-sp-500-forecast","tag-sp-500-moving-averages","tag-sp-500-support-resistance","tag-sp-500-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500-today","tag-sp-500-trading","tag-sp-500-trend","tag-sp500","tag-us-stock-market-index"],"yoast_head":"\nChart of the Week: S&P 500 Index - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S&P 500 technical analysis: MA20W confirms support at 6,754. Bullish trend remains despite MA200W overextension. Bulls control week 3\/2026. 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