{"id":714,"date":"2026-01-25T19:23:54","date_gmt":"2026-01-25T18:23:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=714"},"modified":"2026-01-29T10:09:07","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T09:09:07","slug":"bitcoin-silver-weekly-analysis-charts-flash-week-4-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/bitcoin-silver-weekly-analysis-charts-flash-week-4-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"CHARTS FLASH &#8211; WEEK 4\/2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><span style=\"color: #666666;\">Quick observations on charts that caught our attention this week.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week&#8217;s flash covers Bitcoin&#8217;s concerning parallel with 2022, and a Silver follow-up: despite the rally, the bubble thesis remains intact.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This isn&#8217;t meant to be a full analysis \u2014 just food for thought on a few charts that caught my attention this week.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3>\u26a1 BITCOIN<\/h3>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_717\" style=\"width: 1898px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1888\" data-lbwps-height=\"894\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1-300x142.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-717\" class=\"size-full wp-image-717\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1888\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1.png 1888w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Bitcoin-Weekly-MA100-1-1536x727.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1888px) 100vw, 1888px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-717\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Bitcoin and MA100W<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weekly chart shows an interesting parallel.<\/p>\r\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What happened in early 2022:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Prices broke through the MA50W (red)<\/li>\r\n<li>Dropped to the MA100W (purple)<\/li>\r\n<li>Made a weak bounce and stayed above it for several weeks<\/li>\r\n<li>Pulled back to the MA50W<\/li>\r\n<li>Broke the MA100W and crashed down to the MA200W<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p><strong>December 2025 setup \u2014 remarkably similar:<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\r\n<li>Break of the MA50W<\/li>\r\n<li>Hold at the MA100W<\/li>\r\n<li>Lingering for multiple weeks near the MA100W<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\r\n<p>Also note how the formation of the 2021 and 2025 peaks is very similar, with a central dip right on the MA50W that allowed a rally toward a new high.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What now?<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I don&#8217;t know, but I&#8217;d watch the MA100W closely. If it gives way with a price signal, bears will jump on the bulls&#8217; backs. And remember that, according to K33 Research data cited by Bloomberg, $89,000 represents the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETF holders. So going below that could really trigger panic selling.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3>\u26a1 SILVER<\/h3>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_719\" style=\"width: 1898px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1888\" data-lbwps-height=\"894\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions-300x142.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-719\" class=\"size-full wp-image-719\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1888\" height=\"894\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions.png 1888w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions-1024x485.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions-768x364.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Silver-Overextensions-1536x727.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1888px) 100vw, 1888px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-719\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Silver Overextension on MA5-10-20-50-100-200<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A follow-up to our chart of the week from last week (which you can read <a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/silver-weekly-analysis-2026-w03\/\">here<\/a>).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking at the overextensions: except for the MA5W, all the others have shattered the records of the last 25 years.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The underlying thesis, despite this week&#8217;s strong bull action, hasn&#8217;t changed \u2014 the current trend is a bubble, and that&#8217;s what the numbers say.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trading ideas haven&#8217;t changed either: enter short cautiously and scale in, or enter on a price signal if it&#8217;s not devastating (I refer back to the post linked above).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An alternative approach that aims only at rebalancing the situation could be spread trading: Long Gold Short Silver. This might slightly smooth out timing risk (this is what we&#8217;re going to explore in next week&#8217;s Chart of the Week).<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Quick observations on charts that caught our attention this week. This week&#8217;s flash covers Bitcoin&#8217;s concerning parallel with 2022, and a Silver follow-up: despite the rally, the bubble thesis remains intact.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[676],"tags":[769,27,703,721,723,725,707,715,719,711,713,38,705,709,717],"class_list":["post-714","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-charts-flash","tag-analisi-tecnica-grafico-argento","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-analysis","tag-bitcoin-crash-pattern","tag-bitcoin-etf-en","tag-bitcoin-ma100w-en","tag-bitcoin-price-prediction","tag-bitcoin-technical-analysis","tag-crypto-market-analysis","tag-cryptocurrency-analysis","tag-precious-metals-trading","tag-silver","tag-silver-analysis","tag-silver-bubble","tag-silver-overextension"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CHARTS FLASH - WEEK 4\/2026 - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin mirrors 2022 crash pattern at MA100W ($89k ETF cost basis). 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