{"id":770,"date":"2026-01-28T17:36:04","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T16:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/?p=770"},"modified":"2026-01-28T17:36:04","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T16:36:04","slug":"japanese-candlesticks-evening-star-pattern-spotted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/japanese-candlesticks-evening-star-pattern-spotted\/","title":{"rendered":"Pattern Spotted: Evening Star"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><small>Pattern Spotted is our format where we analyze patterns and configurations as they appear in the markets. This week we discuss the <strong>Evening Star<\/strong> on S&amp;P500 and DAX.<\/small><\/em><\/p>\r\n\r\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">The Evening Star was one of the first configurations that captured my attention when I started studying technical analysis.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_757\" style=\"width: 644px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Evening-Star.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"634\" data-lbwps-height=\"373\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Evening-Star-300x176.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-757\" class=\"size-full wp-image-757\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Evening-Star.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"634\" height=\"373\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Evening-Star.png 634w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Evening-Star-300x176.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 634px) 100vw, 634px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-757\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Japanese Candelsticks Pattern &#8211; Evening Star<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">The reason is simple: it&#8217;s easy to identify.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Three candles, clear rules, no ambiguity. There&#8217;s no room for subjective interpretations as with head and shoulders, where the discussion about what constitutes a shoulder can last hours.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">With the Evening Star, the pattern&#8217;s presence is objective.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Then comes experience. And the numbers arrive.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Statistical Reality<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">I applied the pattern to various markets across different timeframes, strictly adhering to trend and formation rules. The result recalibrated initial expectations.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">On weekly timeframes, the Evening Star is rare. And when it appears, in most cases it proves inefficient.<\/p>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_774\" style=\"width: 1888px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1878\" data-lbwps-height=\"814\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star-300x130.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-774\" class=\"size-full wp-image-774\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1878\" height=\"814\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star.png 1878w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star-1024x444.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star-768x333.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/EURUSD-evening-star-1536x666.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1878px) 100vw, 1878px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-774\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Evening Star EUR\/USD daily<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">To provide context: on EUR\/USD daily, I identified only one case from 2000 to today. It was 2007, and even that presented borderline elements\u2014the trend was a second peak after a correction. Technically an uptrend, but not in its purest form.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Getting into specifics: the day after the third candle there was a strong bounce on the MA10 (green line) and the following day came the break of C3, concurrent with that of the moving average.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">In my view, the definitive signal was given by the break of the moving average, not by the Evening Star.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">From a textbook perspective, the pattern exists and paid off, but the question remains: would it have paid off without being accompanied by another technical signal?<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">My experience suggests the answer is almost always negative. On other assets, the Evening Star repeated more frequently than on EUR\/USD, but always with failure rates higher than success rates.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P500: When It Fails<\/h3>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_772\" style=\"width: 1888px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1878\" data-lbwps-height=\"814\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500-300x130.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-772\" class=\"size-full wp-image-772\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1878\" height=\"814\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500.png 1878w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500-1024x444.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500-768x333.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-SP500-1536x666.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1878px) 100vw, 1878px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-772\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Evening Star on S&amp;P500 weekly<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">In the chart above, the most recent failure on the S&amp;P500 weekly chart (October-November 2023).<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Confirmation arrives two weeks after C3, but if we pay attention there&#8217;s a touch on the MA20W (orange) and a bounce creating a lower shadow.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">The MA20W, as we know from <a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/it\/sp500-analisi-settimanale-2026-w02\/#SP500-MA20W\">Chart of The Week<\/a>, is fundamental to the current bull market.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">An Evening Star above the MA20W is very likely just noise.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">While not being overwhelmed, the Evening Star&#8217;s high was exceeded on the weekly close, triggering the stop loss, even though the S&amp;P500 index did not accelerate afterward.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">DAX: When It Works<\/h3>\r\n\r\n<div id=\"attachment_773\" style=\"width: 1888px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX.png\" data-lbwps-width=\"1878\" data-lbwps-height=\"814\" data-lbwps-srcsmall=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX-300x130.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-773\" class=\"wp-image-773 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1878\" height=\"814\" srcset=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX.png 1878w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX-300x130.png 300w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX-1024x444.png 1024w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX-768x333.png 768w, https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/evening-star-DAX-1536x666.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1878px) 100vw, 1878px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-773\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">chart: Evening Star on DAX daily<\/p><\/div>\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">July 2019, an Evening Star on the DAX. The break of C3 occurs in a gap down, followed by a long sideways movement lasting several days with a final spike toward C3.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Certainly not an easy situation to manage. The final acceleration arrives between late July (MA50 break, red line) and early August (pullback right on the MA50).<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Following the algorithm faithfully, it&#8217;s a success, but looking ex post, it doesn&#8217;t really seem the decline was caused by the Evening Star. In this case too, the break of a moving average (the 50) appears to have been the catalyst, as it also confirmed a head and shoulders (which we&#8217;ll discuss in one of the upcoming episodes) over the June-July period.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Pattern Behind the Pattern<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">There&#8217;s an element that emerges from analyzing successful cases.<\/p>\r\n<p style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">Almost always, the Evening Star that works is associated with another signal of greater relevance: a double top, the break of a significant moving average, the breach of an important support level, a head and shoulders.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">The Evening Star alone is not enough. When it works, it&#8217;s rarely exclusively its merit.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\" \/>\r\n\r\n\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">The Evening Star as a pattern exists. It&#8217;s real, identifiable, objective. But I would never trade it stand alone. Only as confirmation of other signals or more solid configurations. A piece in a mosaic, not the mosaic itself.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;\">When you see an Evening Star, the question isn&#8217;t just &#8220;is the pattern there?&#8221; But also &#8220;what else is there?&#8221;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pattern Spotted is our format where we analyze patterns and configurations as they appear in the markets. This week we discuss the Evening Star on S&amp;P500 and DAX.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[420],"tags":[567,403,753,745,749,741,16,75,409,747,743,10,12,468,751],"class_list":["post-770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-pattern-spotted-en","tag-candlestick-patterns","tag-chart-patterns","tag-daily-timeframe","tag-dax-trading","tag-eur-usd-analysis","tag-evening-star-pattern","tag-market-analysis","tag-moving-averages","tag-pattern-recognition","tag-price-action-trading","tag-sp500-analysis","tag-technical-analysis","tag-trading-psychology","tag-trading-strategies","tag-weekly-timeframe"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Pattern Spotted: Evening Star - RRTS Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Evening Star pattern, candlestick patterns, technical analysis, S&amp;P500 analysis, DAX trading, price action trading, moving averages, pattern recognition, trading strategies, chart patterns, EUR\/USD analysis, weekly timeframe, daily timeframe, trading psychology, market analysis\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/round-robin.eu\/blog\/japanese-candlesticks-evening-star-pattern-spotted\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pattern Spotted: Evening Star - 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