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2025 Markets Analysis Outlook 2026

The Transatlantic Rate Divergence

This is the table worth watching.


table: Interest Rates 2025


US 10-year Treasury down 42bps. German Bund up 50bps. French OAT up 36bps. Italian BTP flat.

Two central banks, two different paths. The Fed is cutting. The ECB is stuck — inflation stickier, fiscal concerns in France, Germany struggling but yields rising anyway.

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