Quick observations on the charts that caught our eye this week.
This week’s flash covers EUROSTOXX50, Brent Crude Oil, Nikkei 225 and DAX.
Gold and Silver remain flat with no relevant changes and are not updated.
Bitcoin shows no significant developments and is not updated.
EUR/USD shows no significant developments.
The EUROSTOXX50 closes virtually unchanged from last week, with lower highs and lower lows: Friday’s recovery fully erased the intra-week bearish pressure.
The DAX also prints lower highs and lower lows, but with a bullish body and a positive weekly close.
Brent records higher highs and higher lows and closes above the prior week’s high, but is violently rejected from the 112–120 bear area.
The Nikkei 225 marks a new all-time intraday high but fails to confirm it on the close, ending the week in negative territory.
Let’s dig a little deeper.
⚡ EUROSTOXX50
chart: EUROSTOXX50 weekly
In last week’s Charts Flash the system entered Short after lower highs and lower lows and a weekly close below the prior week’s open — the first sign of exhaustion in the bullish push.
This week the structure remains consistent with the bearish signal: lower highs and lower lows once again. The weekly close at 5,591.51 represents a change of just –1.97 points from the prior week, near-perfect flatness, yet the intra-week dynamics were more eventful than the close suggests.
During the week, price pushed below both the MA20W and the MA10W, genuinely testing those support levels. Friday’s recovery then brought price back above both moving averages, erasing the entire intra-week bearish push and returning price to the equilibrium zone of recent weeks.
Relative strength versus the DAX remains inferior: with an identical technical structure (lower highs and lower lows), the European index failed to close positively while its German counterpart managed a weekly gain. A relative weakness worth monitoring.
The system remains Short.
⚡ BRENT CRUDE OIL
chart: BRENT CRUDE OIL weekly
Last week the system returned to Flat after the recovery of the MA10W and the print of higher highs and higher lows. No active directional signal.
This week the structure remains positive: higher highs and higher lows, with a weekly close at 108.17, marginally above last week’s high of 107.40.
The weekly high of 114.70, however, entered the bear area between 112 and 120 and was immediately and violently rejected. This is not the first time Brent has reacted sharply from these levels. The intensity and repetition of the bearish response constitute a clear warning signal, one that warrants close attention in the weeks ahead.
The system remains Flat. No further signals.
⚡ NIKKEI 225
chart: NIKKEI225 weekly
Last week the system increased its Short positions, with the overextension on the MA200W reaching a new all-time record at 57.60%.
This week the Japanese index set a new all-time intraday high at 60,903.95, but was unable to convert it into a new record close. The week ends in negative territory: –203 points, with a close below Monday’s open. The structure shows higher highs and higher lows, but the candle body is bearish.
The overextension on the MA200W reaches a new all-time record at 58.62%, surpassing last week’s record of 57.60%. The gap between price and the long-term moving average continues to widen, making the structure increasingly vulnerable to a normalisation.
The weekly close is 59,513.12.
The system maintains its Short positions.
⚡ DAX
chart: DAX weekly
In last Charts Flash the system entered Short on the persistence of the Volatility Indicator around 15%, despite the absence of a true price signal. An inside week with a close below the open had pushed price back below the MA20W.
This week the technical structure remains bearish — lower highs and lower lows — but the candle body tells a different story: a close above the open and a positive weekly performance of +163.40 points versus the prior Friday. The weekly close is 24,292.38.
The contrast between structure (bearish) and body (bullish) reflects the dynamics of a market that, while unable to establish a clear direction, maintains resilience at the close. Relative to the EUROSTOXX50, the DAX shows superior relative strength: same lower-highs-and-lower-lows structure, but a positive close against the near-flatness of the European index.
The short signal remains active. There is still room for a bullish swing but it should be limited.
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