Quick observations on charts that caught our attention this week.
We must restart from where we left off last week in our deep dive on Silver.
The assumption remains the same as in our first post when Silver was above $100: the epic rallies will be wiped out completely.
We said: trading Silver right now, in any direction, is a lottery.
Just sit and wait.
This isn’t meant to be a full analysis — just food for thought on a chart that caught my attention this week.
⚡ SILVER
chart: Silver weekly
The week just past showed exactly the lottery setup we warned about: up, down, deep down, big bounce.
The weekly close came in negative at $76.89, below the prior week’s close of $78.53.
Key takeaways:
Despite the crash, there’s no oversold condition on the weekly timeframe.
The market bounced heavily on the MA20W.
Price held at close for two consecutive weeks above the MA10W.
We are still watching one of the three epic rallies in the history of Silver.
Now it’s time to be patient and wait for the bounce that the historical pattern suggests.
After this bounce, Silver should enter a long-term bear market.
What’s next?
At the moment, no indicator is telling us the most convenient zone for a long-term short entry.
We rely again on the behavior of historical epic rallies — a retracement from the low between the 38.2% Fibonacci level (as in 1980), corresponding to around $86, and the 61.8% level (as in 2012), corresponding to the $100 area.
The assumption remains the same as in our first post when Silver was above $100: the epic rallies will be wiped out completely.
Therefore, what we saw this week is likely not a long-term bottom.
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